Japan’s New Security

Shigeru Ishiba has succeeded in his long-standing ambition of leading Japan, becoming the new prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership following five attempts. The 67-year-old narrowly beat conservative rival Sanae Takaichi in a tightly contested race of nine candidates. Winning by just 21 votes, Ishiba’s victory signals a shift in Japanese politics, ushering in a new era.

The Road to Victory: A Narrow Margin

The LDP leadership election was a fierce contest between Ishiba, Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi. In the first round, Takaichi led the vote, with Ishiba close behind. It was the runoff, however, combining 367 parliamentary and 47 prefectural votes (totalling 414), that tipped the scales in Ishiba’s favour. Ishiba secured 215 votes to Takaichi’s 194, thanks largely to support from the faction of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. While Takaichi appealed to the conservative base, her hardline stance worried many who thought it could hurt the LDP in the general election and strain relations with neighbouring countries. These concerns led to the perception that her leadership might complicate diplomacy, which played in Ishiba’s favour.

Ishiba has spent decades at the centre of Japanese politics, holding key positions including Minister of Defence; Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; and Minister for Regional Revitalisation. Known for his deep understanding of security and agricultural issues and his pragmatic leadership, Ishiba is regarded as a steady hand in times of uncertainty. One notable proposal is to establish a Ministry of Disaster Prevention and introduce nuclear shelters nationwide, reflecting his focus on enhancing national resilience against natural disasters and geopolitical threats.

Despite his experience, Ishiba faces major challenges within the LDP. Unlike some of his predecessors, he does not command a strong faction in the party. Hence, his success will largely depend on uniting the various LDP factions.

Ishiba’s track record suggests a willingness to take a more assertive stance on key issues while fostering greater multilateral cooperation

He appears to have skilfully managed his relationship with the influential Aso faction, once seen as an obstacle. To strengthen party cohesion, Ishiba appointed former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as the LDP’s vice president and Taro Aso as the party’s supreme advisor. By including several Aso faction members in key Cabinet positions, he has smoothed over potential friction. These strategic appointments have reassured international policymakers about the stability and continuity of Japan’s leadership.

Foreign Policy Outlook: Continuity and Pragmatism

Despite the change in leadership, the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” initiative will continue to serve as the guiding framework. Yet Ishiba’s approach to foreign policy is likely to include several strategic adjustments. His track record suggests a willingness to take a more assertive stance on key issues while fostering greater multilateral cooperation. A key test will be managing Japan’s delicate relationships with China, South Korea and the US.

China: Ishiba’s firm stance on China is evident in his calls to remove Chinese buoys around the disputed Senkaku Islands, signalling a tough approach to territorial disputes. His August visit to Taiwan, where he met President Lai Ching-te and other senior ministers, underlined his concern over regional security amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait. While his support for Taiwan has drawn criticism from Beijing, Ishiba recognises the need to balance deterrence with diplomacy, as economic ties with China remain vital.

South Korea: Perhaps the country most relieved by Ishiba’s victory is South Korea. Had Takaichi become prime minister, relations might have worsened due to her hawkish stance, whereas Ishiba holds moderate views on historical issues, reducing the likelihood of friction over past disputes. His approach offers an opportunity to improve bilateral relations and strengthen cooperation on shared security concerns, such as North Korea.

The US: Strengthening the Japan–US alliance while advocating for a more equal partnership is a priority for Ishiba. He has called for a review of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) to pursue joint management of US military bases in Japan, enhancing sovereignty over these facilities. Additionally, he proposes establishing training bases for the Ground and Air Self-Defense Forces (SDF) on US soil. Japan lacks sufficient space for full-scale training; utilising the US’s vastness would enhance the SDF’s proficiency. Ishiba suggests this arrangement would elevate mutual trust and grant Japan greater operational control. These measures aim to put the alliance on a more equal footing.

However, revising SOFA would affect other US allies and require US Congress approval, making it complex regardless of the next US administration. Historically, SOFA issues have been addressed through operational changes or supplementary provisions rather than formal revisions. Ishiba’s proposals may require delicate negotiations to align with US policies and address domestic sensitivities. However, his initiatives could reshape the alliance’s dynamics, promoting shared responsibilities and deeper military integration.

Rethinking Regional Security: Beyond “Asian NATO”

One of Ishiba’s more ambitious policies is creating an “Asian NATO”. He believes frameworks like the Japan–US alliance, the US–South Korea alliance and the ANZUS Treaty can be organically combined. While this concept seeks to integrate existing alliances, it faces significant challenges because Asia’s geopolitical landscape differs vastly from Europe’s, where NATO has been successful. The diversity of strategic interests and conflicting security priorities among Asian countries makes establishing a NATO-like collective defence system difficult. This will be compounded if Ishiba conflates “collective defence” – mutual defence against aggression – with “collective security”, a broader framework not targeting specific adversaries. Such distinctions, together with historical barriers, make the realisation of his vision unlikely.

Furthermore, Ishiba has suggested that revisiting Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles – particularly the principle of “not allowing the introduction of nuclear weapons” – may be necessary to strengthen Japan’s deterrence posture and participate more fully in regional security arrangements. He proposes exploring nuclear sharing with the US modelled after NATO’s nuclear policy. However, questions remain about the practicality of such an idea. The air-launched cruise missiles carried by US B-52 bombers with ranges of around 3,000 km can be effectively launched from US bases, making their deployment to Japan unnecessary. Additionally, the B-61 tactical nuclear bombs used in NATO’s sharing arrangements are designed for aerial delivery, but do not align well with Japan’s strategic environment or geography. Without specific details on the types of nuclear weapons to be introduced, Ishiba’s proposal remains speculative and raises more questions than it answers. Moreover, such a move would be highly controversial domestically and could exacerbate regional tensions, making its implementation challenging.

A more viable alternative may lie in enhancing the latticework of alliances and partnerships gradually emerging in the Indo-Pacific. This framework builds on existing minilateral arrangements – such as the Quad, AUKUS and the Camp David Principles – to create flexible, issue-specific partnerships. The latticework model allows for cooperation on specific security concerns, like maritime security or cyber defence, without the rigid structure of a formal military bloc.

Despite these challenges, there are reasons to believe that Japan’s security policy will move in a stable direction. Ishiba has appointed key figures with substantial expertise in defence and security, including the new foreign minister, defence minister and Special Advisor for National Security, all of whom possess a strong understanding of defence issues. This knowledgeable leadership at the helm of Japan’s defence policy provides reassurance that the country will pursue a pragmatic and stable approach as it navigates complex geopolitical dynamics.

As global dynamics evolve, Ishiba’s leadership presents an opportunity for Japan to redefine its international role, embracing traditional values while strategically adapting to new realities

Both Ishiba’s nuclear sharing proposal and his idea for an “Asian NATO” appear to be aimed largely at a domestic audience. While these bold proposals resonate with national security concerns in Japan, they are unlikely to be pushed aggressively on the international stage. In a recent interview, Ishiba acknowledged the need for careful pre-coordination with allies like the US before raising such issues at high-level meetings, signalling a pragmatic understanding of the complexities involved.

Conclusion: Navigating Japan’s Future Amid Global Uncertainties

Ishiba’s ascent to prime minister marks a pivotal moment for Japan, potentially reshaping domestic governance and security policy. With 38 years of political experience and deep expertise in the defence arena, he is well-prepared to address the country’s complex challenges amid an uncertain global landscape.

Ishiba’s success hinges on balancing continuity with innovation. While ambitious proposals like an “Asian NATO” and nuclear sharing attract attention, their practicality is limited by Indo-Pacific geopolitical realities. Focusing on enhancing existing alliances and cultivating flexible partnerships may offer a more sustainable path, strengthening Japan’s security posture without the complications of rigid alliances.

Domestically, unifying the LDP is crucial. By incorporating diverse viewpoints and fostering collaboration between factions, Ishiba can build a cohesive government capable of effective policy implementation.

Ultimately, his tenure will be defined internationally by his ability to balance assertiveness with diplomacy. Steering Japan through internal challenges and external pressures will determine the country’s role in promoting stability and security in the Indo-Pacific. As global dynamics evolve, Ishiba’s leadership presents an opportunity for Japan to redefine its international role, embracing traditional values while strategically adapting to new realities.

Daisuke Kawai is a Project Assistant Professor and the Deputy Director of the Economic Security Programme at RCAST, The University of Tokyo. He also serves as an Asia Fellow at the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), and Senior Advisor for Quad Strategic Planning to the Quad Investors Network (QUIN).